We’re launching a regulated prediction markets trading app. Here's why — and how.

We recently announced a new app for trading prediction markets called Wealthsimple Predict. Later this summer, Canadians who so desire will be able to trade on real-world events. So if you have a particularly strong take on the Bank of Canada’s next rate adjustment, the price of oil, or even the total rainfall in August in Halifax, you can trade on it.

Prediction markets offer a different way for traders to engage with the events shaping the economy. They’re also one of the fastest-growing segments in global financial markets. After topping US$51 billion last year, total annual market volume is expected to hit US$240 billion in 2026 and more than US$1 trillion by 2030.

When used well, prediction markets are more than a place to express a view. Every prediction markets trade is someone backing an opinion with their money. The way stock markets turn scattered opinions about a company's potential into a single price, prediction markets turn scattered takes on the likelihood of an event into a consensus probability — often faster and more accurately than polls or commentary. Event contracts also let people and businesses hedge real exposures. For instance, a borrower worried about rising rates can balance that with a prediction market contract that pays off if rates climb.

Of course, prediction markets have also been the subject of controversy, from insider trading to whether certain markets should be made available to trade. Those are valid concerns. That's why I wanted to explain what exactly we built, along with what Wealthsimple Predict does and ​ does not do.

What we built

As a company that prides itself on well-designed user experiences, we saw an opportunity. We could build something for interested Canadians who were stuck watching prediction markets from the sidelines: a regulated product that's intuitive and easy to use.

For the regulation part, we worked with the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) to get approval to offer prediction markets trading. The contracts we offer are subjected to the same scrutiny and controls as other listed derivatives. At launch we will offer three initial contract categories: economic indicators, financial markets, and climate.

As with all of our products, it is important to us that clients understand what they’re trading and how it works. So we put education first with Wealthsimple Predict: before you make a single trade, the app runs you through a guided orientation with clear definitions, risk disclosures, and details on when and how contracts resolve. And if you ever try to purchase a contract in a low-liquidity market — where prices can be volatile and getting out of a position can come at a premium — you’ll see a warning about the risks. That way, you can keep going and trade with confidence, or decide it’s not for you.

How we built it

We partnered with Kalshi, a leading global predictions exchange, which allows us to launch with nearly 4,000 contracts to trade.

It was important that we work with another regulated partner to build this product. One of the biggest reasons is insider trading, which has been a problem in prediction markets. Insider trading is illegal and Kalshi follows U.S. regulations and maintains surveillance across all markets and participants to identify it. And, as with all our trading products, we have controls in place to monitor, detect and report potential insider trading activity.

We also needed to work with an exchange that would let us control what contracts are available to trade. Other platforms allow investors to profit from violence, terrorism, or death. Those markets have no place in our app, and we’ll never offer them.

The risks of prediction markets

Prediction markets are financial markets, which means they involve risk. Every dollar earned by one trader is a dollar lost by another, and a pure trading position offers no fallback if you lose. Even for investors who use them as a hedging strategy — a restaurant owner might take a position on a rainy August as a way to balance lower sales from a slower patio season — the insurance comes at a cost. All of which is why it’s so important to trade only what you are comfortable losing.

Our ask of you

If you use the app and see an opportunity for us to do better, please let us know. As with every new product, there will be many more decisions to make and many new versions to come. Your feedback will help us make Predict ​ the best it can possibly be.

As I mentioned above, we’re also aware that prediction markets are not for everyone. That’s a big reason behind the decision to make Wealthsimple Predict a separate app. If you aren’t interested in this new asset class, you can simply turn off marketing for it in the Wealthsimple app. Your experience with the rest of our offerings won’t be affected.

Thanks, and keep it simple.

Brett Huneycutt

Co-Founder & Chief Product Officer